Q3.2012 Video Market Report for San Francisco Real Estate

October 25, 2012 by · 2 Comments 

The summer months typically see a slowdown in home sales, but this summer was anything but slow. An exceptionally tight supply of homes on the market resulted in frenzied activity among buyers looking to get into contracts at all price points in the third quarter, and multiple bids were the norm for all fairly priced properties – both single-family homes and condominiums.Sellers found themselves choosing among multiple offers – in some cases 20 or more – which helped push single-family home prices higher across the city. Prices are now very close to the highs reached at the peak of the market in 2005-2006.The limited homes-for-sale availability, coupled with strong buyer demand, should contribute to an increase in the median price for single-family homes. We expect this will encourage more sellers to come off the sidelines, which will help inventory levels rise.Noe Valley, with its family-friendly ambience and the easy commute to the South Bay, was one of the hottest real estate markets in the third quarter. Overall sales volume in the neighborhood was sharply up compared with Q3 in 2011 – a trend that was also seen in the rest of the city’s District 5, which includes Cole Valley, Duboce Triangle, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Valley, and Twin Peaks.

In the condominium market, limited inventory woes continued through Q3, with the months’ supply of inventory tightening up. Even though inventory was down 40 percent, sales were up 38 percent, year over year – a tremendous increase.

As young professionals move into the city with cash in hand from recent tech IPOs and expansions, South Beach will certainly solidify its status as one of the most desirable neighborhoods for condos, especially along the waterfront.

Looking Forward: The constrained inventory that has played havoc with buyers over the past year is finally showing signs of loosening. Our real estate professionals are hearing of a sharp increase in business for stagers, who typically prepare properties for sale, and for professionals who do pre-sale inspections, so expect to see a wider selection of homes for sale over the next six months.

Pacific Union International Luxury Property Portfolio

October 22, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Check out these amazing and exclusive PUI listings. If you need more information on any of these properties please contact us immediately. The market has turned from COLD to HOT in a very short time and combined with historic low interest rates makes it a great time to buy.

40 Sunrise Lane, Larkspur – NOT ON MLS – Available for Sale

October 22, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

An amazing opportunity awaits at this stunning Larkspur home. Located in a private cul-de-sac within steps of world class trails and the historic town of Larkspur California. Contact Jimmy directly for more information on this spectacular property. Available for immediate sale.

Jimmy Wanninger | Pacific Union International | 415.990.8990
NOT ON MLS – Call 415.990.8990 For Details Offered at $1,895,000
Highlights:
- 4 Bedrooms, 3 ½ Bathrooms
- Vaulted Ceilings
- Hardwood and Tile Flooring
- French Doors open to outdoor patios
- Stone surround Fireplace
- Media Room/Office
- Stainless Steel Appliances
- Incredible Bay and Hill Views
- In-ground swimming pool surrounded by wood deck
- Stone Patio
- 2 Car Garage
Spectacular Sunrise!

An Entertainer’s Dream! This 4 bedroom, 3 ½ bathroom, striking view property is ideally situated at the top of a private street and within minutes of Larkspur’s award-winning schools, shopping malls and access to 101. You’ll be greeted by gorgeous, hardwood flooring throughout the living and dining rooms. The spacious updated eat-in kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and access to the west-facing patio surrounded by sky-high redwood trees. The large master suite features an updated bathroom, walk-in closet and incredible views of the SF Bay. Situated next to the master suite is a media room/office with soaring ceilings and floor to ceiling windows that savor the view. The chef’s kitchen is well-appointed with a center island, brand new stainless steel appliances, and French doors opening to the private stone patio.

Mature landscaping and swimming pool surrounded by immense wood decks provide the ultimate gathering space. The additional bedroom on the south wing is en suite, which makes it ideal for use as a home office, Au Pair quarters or second Master Suite. The combination of traditional elegance and contemporary style, along with easy access to some of the best hiking trails, make this home a much sought after residence in beautiful Larkspur.

For more information go to http://jimmymarin.comlistings/40-sunrise-lane-larkspur/

Jimmy Wanninger
415.990.8990
jimmy@jimmymarin.com
www.JimmyMarin.com
DRE# 01352287
Pacific Union International
The information contained herein has been provided by various sources which may include the seller, public records, multiple listing service, or others. Pacific Union has not verified or investigated the accuracy of this information. Prospective buyers are advised to conduct their own investigation of the property and the information contained herein, utilizing licensed professionals where appropriate, before purchasing this property.

 

Pacific Union International, One Letterman Drive, San Francisco, CA 94129
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Foreclosures down sharply in Marin.

October 21, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

As part of a continuing trend suggesting that the housing crisis is tailing off, foreclosures dropped sharply in Marin, the Bay Area and California last quarter. Foreclosures in Marin were down 58 percent in the third quarter of 2012, to 55, compared with 131 in the third quarter of 2011, according to San Diego-based DataQuick. Also, fewer homeowners fell behind on their mortgages, the real estate tracking firm reported Wednesday.

“Marin is right in there with the other wealthier California coastal counties where the market has stabilized,” said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage. “There aren’t as many people getting in trouble.” The county recorded 241 notices of default in the third quarter, down 18 percent from the same period in 2011 and the lowest figure in at least five years. Default notices are filed when borrowers fall behind on their mortgages.

“Everybody keeps asking, ‘Have we hit bottom?’ and we have,” said David Smadbeck, president of the Marin Association of Realtors. He said the numbers indicate that the housing crisis has passed its peak and is beginning to resolve. LePage affirmed Smadbeck’s judgment, saying, “We’re three-and-a-half years past the peak of the notices of default.”

Smadbeck said the dramatic drop in foreclosures was due at least in part to banks’ increasing willingness to work with homeowners on loan modifications and short sales. A short sale is when a homeowner sells the house for less than is owed to the bank.
Other real estate professionals agreed.

“There are incentives from the government to have people do these things rather than go into foreclosure,” said Kathleen Freitag of Frank Howard Allen in Novato. “It’s better for people to do a loan modification and stay in their home. Typically the bank will amortize the mortgage over a longer period of time and lower the interest rate and hence the monthly payments.”

Patti Cohn, a broker, said she is seeing far fewer foreclosures, and sales volumes are up. In some instances, homes are going for more than the asking price, she said. “Yesterday I sold a property at 12 percent over asking,” said Cohn, who operates out of Pacific Union International in Novato.

Foreclosures saw double-digit drops in all nine Bay Area counties, including San Francisco, where they were down 31 percent, from 162 in the third quarter of 2011 to 112 in the third quarter of 2012. In the East Bay, Alameda County saw a 50 percent drop in foreclosures, while Contra Costa County had a 46 percent drop.

Last quarter’s foreclosures were the lowest for California since 2007, according to DataQuick. The median price for a home in California was $300,000 in the third quarter, while the median price of a home in Marin was $748,500 in September.

Source: (MarinIJ.com)

#rallyzito #sfgiants #orangeoctober – SF Giants rule the twitter world

October 20, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

If you haven’t heard yet. Barry Zito and the San Francisco Giants held off elimination against the St. Louis Cardinals last night when Zito pitched 7 2/3 innings of scoreless baseball and the Giants won 5-0. During the game the hashtag #rallyzito literally took over the Twitter World and is still the number one trending hashtag this morning. Take a tour on twitter. An amazing occurence. The questions is can the Giants fans carry the #rallyzito trend through Sundays 4:37 pm game. Sunday’s starter, Ryan Vogelsong #RallyVogelsong traditionally eats Chicken Enchiladas the night before the game. So if you are a true Giants Fan, join the fun and #chickenenchiladas for the team. Go Giants!

 

#rallyzito

 

A $38M sale on the “Gold Coast” of San Francisco and it’s a fixer!

October 20, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

During the height of the boom, 2845 Broadway in San Francisco came on the market in 2006, asking a dizzying $65 million. The French limestone property has had a hard time finding a buyer and has dropped its price significantly over the years, shaving 42% off its original listing price to its most recent ask of $38.5 million.
The enormous, neo classic home and guest house sits on the prestigous Gold Coast neighborhood of Pac Heights and is owned by the Sperling family, who amassed their fortune by starting the private University of Phoenix. Our friends over at SocketSite now report that the home is finally in contract, after being quietly pulled from the market last week. Listing agent Warwick Properties also notes the property status as “in escrow,” on its website.

While the contract price has not been disclosed, it may possibly go down in record for the most expensive home sold in SF. The title currently belongs to neighboring 2840 Broadway, which snatched a cool $33 million in 2011. One big distinction is that 2845 Broadway is a fixer. From the curb, it looks all well and done, but the home is like a Hollywood set and really nothing but a shell. SocketSite reports:

As plugged-in people know, the site upon which 2845 Broadway was built was purchased for $32 million in 2002, the cost of construction for the 17,500 square foot main home and 6,000 square foot guest house has already reached roughly $20 million, and the “buzz among brokers” is that it will cost another $8-16 million to finish the build.

We hope it will be one snazzy estate when the property is all done and finished.

(Source: SFGATE.com)

Q3 2012 San Francisco Market Report

October 17, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3.2012

Pacific Union International
Agent Photo
Jimmy Wanninger
Neighborhood Data Properties for Sale Pacific Union Blog
San Francisco: Q3 Results
The summer months typically see a slowdown in home sales, but this summer was anything but slow. An exceptionally tight supply of homes on the market resulted in frenzied activity among buyers looking to get into contracts at all price points in the third quarter, and multiple bids were the norm for all fairly priced properties – both single-family homes and condominiums.Sellers found themselves choosing among multiple offers – in some cases 20 or more – which helped push single-family home prices higher across the city. Prices are now very close to the highs reached at the peak of the market in 2005-2006.The limited homes-for-sale availability, coupled with strong buyer demand, should contribute to an increase in the median price for single-family homes. We expect this will encourage more sellers to come off the sidelines, which will help inventory levels rise.Noe Valley, with its family-friendly ambience and the easy commute to the South Bay, was one of the hottest real estate markets in the third quarter. Overall sales volume in the neighborhood was sharply up compared with Q3 in 2011 – a trend that was also seen in the rest of the city’s District 5, which includes Cole Valley, Duboce Triangle, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Valley, and Twin Peaks.

In the condominium market, limited inventory woes continued through Q3, with the months’ supply of inventory tightening up. Even though inventory was down 40 percent, sales were up 38 percent, year over year – a tremendous increase.

As young professionals move into the city with cash in hand from recent tech IPOs and expansions, South Beach will certainly solidify its status as one of the most desirable neighborhoods for condos, especially along the waterfront.

Looking Forward: The constrained inventory that has played havoc with buyers over the past year is finally showing signs of loosening. Our real estate professionals are hearing of a sharp increase in business for stagers, who typically prepare properties for sale, and for professionals who do pre-sale inspections, so expect to see a wider selection of homes for sale over the next six months.

Median Sales Price
The median sales price represents the midpoint in the range of all prices paid. It indicates that half the prices paid were higher than this number, and half were lower. It is not the same measure as “average” sales price.
Single Family Homes – Median Sales Price
Click to view larger chart
Condominiums – Median Sales Price
Click to view larger chart
Months’ Supply of Inventory
The months’ supply of inventory is a measure of how quickly the current supply of homes would be sold at the current sales rate, assuming no more homes came on the market. In general, an MSI below 4 is considered a seller’s market; between 4 and 6 is a balanced market; and above 6 is a buyer’s market.
Single Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory
Click to view larger chart
Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory
Click to view larger chart
Average Days on the Market
Average days on the market is a measure that indicates the pace of sales activity. It tracks, on average, the number of days a listing is active until it reaches close of escrow.
Single Family Homes – Average Days on the Market
Click to view larger chart
Condominiums – Average Days on the Market
Click to view larger chart
Percentage of Properties Under Contract
Percentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity. It tracks expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes.
Single Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract
Click to view larger chart
Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract
Click to view larger chart
Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
Measuring the final sales price as a percentage of the original list price, without price adjustments, measures the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sales amount, but it also indicates the level of sales activity in a region.
Single Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
Click to view larger chart
Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
Click to view larger chart
Delving into San Francisco’s Districts
San Francisco is defined by 10 separate districts, each of which encompasses several neighborhoods.
District 1: Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lake, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff.
District 2: Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights.
District 3: Pine Lake Park, Merced Manor, Lake Shore, Lakeside, Stonestown, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview.
District 4: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood, Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park.
District 5: Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights, Glen Park, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Dolores, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks.
District 6: Alamo Square, Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, North Panhandle, Western Addition.
District 7: Cow Hollow, Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights.
District 8: Downtown, Financial District/Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, North Waterfront, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill, Tenderloin, Van Ness/Civic Center.
District 9: Bernal Heights, Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach, South of Market, Yerba Buena.
District 10: Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood, Outer Mission, Mission Terrace, Portola, Silver Terrace, Visitacion Valley.
Click to view larger chart
Click to view larger chart
Click to view larger chart
Click to view larger chart
Bay Area: Is the Housing Slump Over?
By now you’ve heard the optimistic news emanating from the media and real estate experts across the country: Housing markets are back on their way up.Home values are rising, foreclosures are dropping, and housing starts are increasing. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s plan to purchase mortgage-backed securities to the tune of $40 billion a month should contribute to the climb by pushing down mortgage rates and boosting home prices.Sounds like great news, and it is. But to those of us in the Bay Area, it’s a bit of old news. In January, we predicted we’d see the best year in housing since 2006. So far we have – and there are strong indicators that’ll continue, thanks to sustained job growth, low interest rates, and aggressive buyer demand.If there’s a downside to all this, it’s that buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines hoping to pounce on a foreclosure or distressed property have likely missed their opportunity. The records being set for number of homes sold in the Bay Area are being accomplished with limited inventory, and this will contribute to price appreciation.

The combination of buyer demand and a continuing constrained supply of available homes is leading to a return of one of the hallmarks of the heyday of Bay Area real estate: the bidding war.

Multiple offers on well-priced properties are becoming the norm in many areas, and for every one buyer who lands the home, there are several frustrated suitors even more determined to find a new abode ? thus fueling more multiple offers. We predict housing will be 3 to 6 percent more expensive by this time next year.

For more about the return of the bidding wars, read our exclusive feature story below. And best wishes for a happy, healthy, and productive year-end!

Going, Going, Gone! The Return of Bidding Wars
Throughout 2012 we’ve seen continued improvements in our housing markets, and our predictions of enjoying the best real estate year in the Bay Area since 2006 seem to be coming true.Q3 has also brought the re-emergence of another characteristic of the heights of Bay Area real estate: bidding wars.Multiple offers on desirable properties have become common, and the bidding wars that result can test the nerves of the most seasoned real-estate veteran.Sellers in many Bay Area regions may receive 10 to 20 competing offers for a well-priced home; some homes are even luring 30 offers.

Our regions experiencing the most bidding-war activity in Q3 included the East Bay, Contra Costa County, Marin County, San Francisco, and Sonoma Valley. Sonoma County as a whole saw moderate numbers of multiple offers. Napa County and the Tahoe/Truckee area had the fewest bidding wars.

A robust economy, a skyrocketing housing market, and waves of tech dollars flowing from Silicon Valley spurred bidding wars during the real estate boom of the last decade. Today’s bidding wars owe more to the laws of supply and demand: too few homes on the market for too many eager buyers.

After years of stagnation, the pent-up demand for homes in the Bay Area today is palpable, fueled by historically low interest rates, economic growth, and an increasingly expensive rental market.

The problem: There’s precious little to buy.

Prospective sellers are waiting on the sidelines, unwilling or unable to enter the marketplace. More than a quarter of all Bay Area homeowners today remain underwater, owing more on their mortgages than their properties are worth. Others won’t sell because they don’t have enough equity yet to buy another home, or are holding out for higher price points.

This reluctance has driven down the supply of housing inventory across the Bay Area, which usually averages four to six months, to below two months in many regions. Cue the feeding frenzy, as hungry buyers compete against each other to land one of those homes.

Bidding wars can be great news for sellers who price their properties appropriately.

One of our real estate professionals recently helped a Bay Area client sell a home that attracted 27 bidders after just one week on the market.

“The seller was completely taken aback by the interest in the property,” our real estate professional said. “We had to be careful with the pricing, but the market was hurting for inventory.”

The home was offered at $417,000, slightly higher than comparable homes in the area. The eventual winning bid came in at $485,000 — much of it in cash. The final selling price nearly matched what the owners paid in 2009.

Looking ahead, multiple offers will likely stay on the scene for a year or more, although gradual increases in home values will bring more homeowners above water and back in the market.

Meanwhile, although it can be frustrating for buyers to compete in a bidding war, it’s not necessarily a losing proposition. To improve your odds:

  • Get pre-approved – not just prequalified — for a loan, and offer the highest price you can.
  • Make the highest down payment you can afford, and offer more cash if possible.
  • If you are pre-approved and time permits, consider doing inspections in advance of your offer. The seller would likely respect your intent — and you may then consider waiving any unnecessary contingencies to expedite the process.
  • Don’t forget the personal touch: A “buyer’s letter” that lets the seller know how much you love and want the home can often spell the difference between two similar offers.

And listen to the real estate professional representing you. He or she has unique knowledge about the neighborhoods and homes you’re evaluating, as well as expert insights into market conditions, and can give you valuable advice to tip the scales in your favor.

Bay Area 10-Year Overview
Here’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the third quarter of 2012, with a glance back at the 10 preceding third quarters.
Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.
Recent Activity
FOR SALE
9 Pleasant Ave, Corte Madera
Listed at $2,995,000
9Pleasant.com
FOR SALE
63 Marin Bay Park, San Rafael
Listed at $2,497,000
63MarinBayPark.com
FOR SALE
314 Woodland Road, Kentfield
Listed at $4,500,000
314Woodland.com
Neighborhood Data Properties for Sale
Pacific Union Blog Christie's Real Estate
Agent Photo
Jimmy Wanninger
415.990.8990
jimmy@jimmymarin.com
www.JimmyMarin.com
901 Sir Francis Drake Blvd
Kentfield, CA 94904
Pacific Union International
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© Pacific Union International, Inc. 2012. CA DRE #01352287

 

 

Pacific Union International Market Share Increases

October 17, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Pacific Union International has had an amazing year in 2012. Our CEO, Mark McLaughlin sent the attached market share graph which represents the success we have had as a company in 2012 in every county within the Bay Area. Take a peak at the numbers below. In addition, I have attached the text of the email Mark sent to us. Mark is an incredibly motivating leader who understands what it takes to motivate his team. Looking for a team of professionals to represent you in your real estate transactions then look no further. We are ready to help you win in your transactions using our incredible technology and teamwork.

Enjoy the article and GO GIANTS!

Trailing 12 Months % Growth Year-Over-Year by County: Oct ’11- Sep ‘12

Dear Pacific Union Colleagues;

The intensity of professional sports in the fall season is exhilarating! The recent performance of the A’s, Giants, and 49ers has been most inspiring – not to mention the America’s Cup World Series and yesterday’s excitement on San Francisco Bay.

I was celebrating the Giants heroics via text last week with Mary Thomson, PUI Mill Valley when she pointed out thatteamwork overcomes everything! Mary referenced Hunter Pence’s locker room speech, which clearly motivated his teammates to outperform all expectations. “Play for each other” was such an inspiring and passionate statement – I get goose bumps thinking about how it must have felt to be in that locker room!

Then Sunday’s New York Times had an article about Alex Smith titled “Quarterback Replaces Himself”. Clearly Smith has had his challenges, but it was his ability to look in the mirror, own his challenges, and focus on greatness that now has him outperforming everyone’s expectations. And what a difference a coach (read: “mentor”) can have on an individual’s performance. When Smith’s former coach (initials MS) was asked what he learned about offense as 49ers head coach, his response was, “You gotta have a quarterback”.

Clearly Mr. Harbaugh found a quarterback to run his offense!

Team PUI’s intensity is impressive to me. I see you playing for each other and 100% see you playing for your clients with passion and intensity every day!

Yesterday I received the six-county market share report and a comparative analysis as to how Pacific Union is outperforming the market. Our collective intensity over the past twelve month has once again delivered impressive results.

The chart above illustrates the difference between the growth in the markets we serve and Pacific Union’s performance. Overall, for just those sales reported in the MLS, Pacific Union’s growth rate of 26% year over year is twice the growth rate of the market of 13% year over year. If you include our “off-market” closings, our growth rate is 38% — or three times the market’s pace year-over-year. The attached file expresses the results in a quantitative manner.

We are closing out an amazing run in 2012 – none of us expected the demand we have experienced or the amazing lack of inventory in nearly every one of our local markets.  When I visit our offices I see the stress and emotions in your eyes. None of our opportunities seem simple; in fact, they are often more complex than expected.

Sometimes I wish we could wake up to a practice day instead of having to wear our game faces 24/7. But champions are measured by their performance in extreme situations, and I witness championship performance in each of you every day.

From me, a personal thank-you for your intense dedication, your willingness to play for each other, and your continued confidence in PUI.

Impressive results!

Go Giants!!!

Sincerely,

Mark A. McLaughlin

CEO Pacific Union International

 

Marin Real Estate 2012 3rd Quarter Report

October 16, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

Quarterly Real Estate Report Q3.2012

Pacific Union International
Agent Photo
Jimmy Wanninger
415.990.8990
Neighborhood Data Properties for Sale Pacific Union Blog
Happy Fall! We hope you’re enjoying this beautiful fall weather in Marin County. It’s been quite an amazing season for real estate sales in the Bay Area, especially here in Marin. Homes are trading very quickly and in many cases, at list price or above with multiple offers. With the limited inventory in conjunction with record low mortgage rates, home prices have begun an upward swing.The key points of my Q3 2012 Newsletter to point out  if you are considering selling before Spring are:* Inventory is down, along with days on market

* Prices are up and homes are selling at or above list price

* Multiple offers are becoming commonplace in many Marin County neighborhoods

If you’re thinking about buying, now is the time! Mortgage rates are at historic lows and in most Bay Area neighborhoods, buying is cheaper than renting!

For a more  in-depth analysis of what’s happening in your neighborhood or if you’re thinking about a neighborhood you’d like to call home, give me a call 24/7 at 415.990.8990.

Marin County: Q3 Results
Homes sold briskly across all price points in the third quarter in Marin County, despite the constrained inventory levels that currently bedevil all real estate markets in the Bay Area.Open houses were well-attended throughout the quarter, attesting to the pent-up demand among buyers, and Mill Valley remained especially popular. Most sales in the county involved multiple offers.Home prices are creeping higher but still nowhere near where they were in 2006 and 2007, and it may take several years before those who bought homes at the peak of the market will see significant price appreciation. A big part of the local real estate market typically involves trade-up buyers, but that’s been difficult lately for homeowners unable to sell at the prices they expected.Looking Forward:Home stagers tell us that they’re busier than they’ve ever been. That’s a welcome sign that the severe shortage of housing inventory may lessen in the very near future, but other indicators suggest that sellers might be waiting until the spring to gauge the increase in home values before they join the market in substantial numbers. Recent action by the Federal Reserve to push down long-term interest rates should further encourage buyers through the next year.Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets in Marin County include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.
Median Sales Price
The median sales price represents the midpoint in the range of all prices paid. It indicates that half the prices paid were higher than this number, and half were lower. It is not the same measure as “average” sales price.
Click to view larger chart
Months’ Supply of Inventory
The months’ supply of inventory is a measure of how quickly the current supply of homes would be sold at the current sales rate, assuming no more homes came on the market. In general, an MSI below 4 is considered a seller’s market; between 4 and 6 is a balanced market; and above 6 is a buyer’s market.
Click to view larger chart
Average Days on the Market
Average days on the market is a measure that indicates the pace of sales activity. It tracks, on average, the number of days a listing is active until it reaches “pending” status, meaning all contingencies have been removed and both parties are just waiting to close.
Click to view larger chart
Percentage of Properties Under Contract
Percentage of properties under contract is a forward-looking indicator of sales activity. It tracks expected home sales before the paperwork is completed and the sale actually closes.
Click to view larger chart
Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price
Measuring the final sales price as a percentage of the original list price, without price adjustments, measures the success of a seller in receiving the hoped-for sales amount, but it also indicates the level of sales activity in a region.
Click to view larger chart
A Closer Look at Marin County
Click to view larger chart
Bay Area: Is the Housing Slump Over?
By now you’ve heard the optimistic news emanating from the media and real estate experts across the country: Housing markets are back on their way up.Home values are rising, foreclosures are dropping, and housing starts are increasing. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s plan to purchase mortgage-backed securities to the tune of $40 billion a month should contribute to the climb by pushing down mortgage rates and boosting home prices.Sounds like great news, and it is. But to those of us in the Bay Area, it’s a bit of old news. In January, we predicted we’d see the best year in housing since 2006. So far we have – and there are strong indicators that’ll continue, thanks to sustained job growth, low interest rates, and aggressive buyer demand.If there’s a downside to all this, it’s that buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines hoping to pounce on a foreclosure or distressed property have likely missed their opportunity. The records being set for number of homes sold in the Bay Area are being accomplished with limited inventory, and this will contribute to price appreciation.The combination of buyer demand and a continuing constrained supply of available homes is leading to a return of one of the hallmarks of the heyday of Bay Area real estate: the bidding war.Multiple offers on well-priced properties are becoming the norm in many areas, and for every one buyer who lands the home, there are several frustrated suitors even more determined to find a new abode ? thus fueling more multiple offers. We predict housing will be 3 to 6 percent more expensive by this time next year.For more about the return of the bidding wars, read our exclusive feature story below. And best wishes for a happy, healthy, and productive year-end!
Going, Going, Gone! The Return of Bidding Wars
Throughout 2012 we’ve seen continued improvements in our housing markets, and our predictions of enjoying the best real estate year in the Bay Area since 2006 seem to be coming true.Q3 has also brought the re-emergence of another characteristic of the heights of Bay Area real estate: bidding wars.Multiple offers on desirable properties have become common, and the bidding wars that result can test the nerves of the most seasoned real-estate veteran.Sellers in many Bay Area regions may receive 10 to 20 competing offers for a well-priced home; some homes are even luring 30 offers.Our regions experiencing the most bidding-war activity in Q3 included the East Bay, Contra Costa County, Marin County, San Francisco, and Sonoma Valley. Sonoma County as a whole saw moderate numbers of multiple offers. Napa County and the Tahoe/Truckee area had the fewest bidding wars.A robust economy, a skyrocketing housing market, and waves of tech dollars flowing from Silicon Valley spurred bidding wars during the real estate boom of the last decade. Today’s bidding wars owe more to the laws of supply and demand: too few homes on the market for too many eager buyers.After years of stagnation, the pent-up demand for homes in the Bay Area today is palpable, fueled by historically low interest rates, economic growth, and an increasingly expensive rental market.The problem: There’s precious little to buy.Prospective sellers are waiting on the sidelines, unwilling or unable to enter the marketplace. More than a quarter of all Bay Area homeowners today remain underwater, owing more on their mortgages than their properties are worth. Others won’t sell because they don’t have enough equity yet to buy another home, or are holding out for higher price points.This reluctance has driven down the supply of housing inventory across the Bay Area, which usually averages four to six months, to below two months in many regions. Cue the feeding frenzy, as hungry buyers compete against each other to land one of those homes.Bidding wars can be great news for sellers who price their properties appropriately.One of our real estate professionals recently helped a Bay Area client sell a home that attracted 27 bidders after just one week on the market.“The seller was completely taken aback by the interest in the property,” our real estate professional said. “We had to be careful with the pricing, but the market was hurting for inventory.”The home was offered at $417,000, slightly higher than comparable homes in the area. The eventual winning bid came in at $485,000 — much of it in cash. The final selling price nearly matched what the owners paid in 2009.

Looking ahead, multiple offers will likely stay on the scene for a year or more, although gradual increases in home values will bring more homeowners above water and back in the market.

Meanwhile, although it can be frustrating for buyers to compete in a bidding war, it’s not necessarily a losing proposition. To improve your odds:

  • Get pre-approved – not just prequalified — for a loan, and offer the highest price you can.
  • Make the highest down payment you can afford, and offer more cash if possible.
  • If you are pre-approved and time permits, consider doing inspections in advance of your offer. The seller would likely respect your intent — and you may then consider waiving any unnecessary contingencies to expedite the process.
  • Don’t forget the personal touch: A “buyer’s letter” that lets the seller know how much you love and want the home can often spell the difference between two similar offers.

And listen to the real estate professional representing you. He or she has unique knowledge about the neighborhoods and homes you’re evaluating, as well as expert insights into market conditions, and can give you valuable advice to tip the scales in your favor.

Bay Area 10-Year Overview
Here’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the third quarter of 2012, with a glance back at the 10 preceding third quarters.
Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.
Recent Activity
FOR SALE
9 Pleasant Ave, Corte Madera
Listed at $2,995,000
9Pleasant.com
FOR SALE
63 Marin Bay Park, San Rafael
Listed at $2,497,000
63MarinBayPark.com
FOR SALE
314 Woodland Road, Kentfield
Listed at $4,500,000
314Woodland.com
Neighborhood Data Properties for Sale
Pacific Union Blog Christie's Real Estate
Agent Photo
Jimmy Wanninger
415.990.8990

415.990.8990
jimmy@jimmymarin.com
www.JimmyMarin.com
901 Sir Francis Drake Blvd
Kentfield, CA 94904
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Dreamforce 2012 arrives in San Francisco

September 18, 2012 by · Leave a Comment 

One of the biggest conferences of the year is in San Francisco this week. Hotels are booked all over the Bay area as Dreamforce takes over San Francisco. The speaker list is impressive, as is the list of over 350 companies exhibiting. Take a peak at the site for Dreamforce 2012 and take a few minutes to hit the city and see what it is all about. We’ll be there off and on! The networking of some of San Francisco’s finest will be evident all week long.

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